ALMM Expansion to Wafers: India’s Solar Manufacturing Shift
⚡ Quick Read
- What happened: The MNRE has expanded the ALMM framework to include solar wafers under List III, with full compliance mandated by June 2028.
- Why it matters: With only 2 GW of current wafer capacity against 210 GW of module capacity, the policy creates a significant upstream supply chain challenge for developers.
- Watch: The issuance of the first List III, which requires at least three manufacturers with a combined 15 GW capacity to trigger the mandate.
Background and Context
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has officially expanded the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) framework to include solar wafers, establishing a new ‘List III’. This strategic policy shift is designed to foster a fully integrated domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem, moving beyond mere module assembly to secure the upstream supply chain. By mandating that projects source wafers from ALMM-listed entities, the government aims to reduce dependency on imports for critical solar components.
Key Details
As of December 2025, India’s solar manufacturing landscape shows a stark structural imbalance. While module capacity has surged to approximately 210 GW and cell capacity stands at 27 GW, domestic wafer manufacturing remains nascent at roughly 2 GW. The new policy mandates full compliance by June 2028. A critical ‘cut-off’ mechanism is embedded in the regulation: projects bidding seven days after the first List III is published may be required to source modules, cells, and wafers exclusively from ALMM-listed manufacturers.
To ensure market stability, the government has set a threshold for the initial list: it will only be issued once at least three independent manufacturers achieve a combined capacity of 15 GW. Furthermore, these manufacturers must demonstrate ingot manufacturing capacity equivalent to their wafer output, ensuring true upstream integration.
What This Means for EPCs and Developers
For EPC contractors and solar developers, the policy introduces significant execution risks. Industry experts, including Amod Anand of Loom Solar, note that the current 2 GW wafer capacity is insufficient to meet the demands of the 2028 mandate. Developers must account for potential supply chain bottlenecks and price volatility as the industry scrambles to scale. Capital expenditure for integrated ingot-wafer facilities is estimated at approximately ₹10 billion (~$108 million) per GW. Developers should anticipate that these high capital barriers may lead to consolidation among manufacturers, potentially impacting project procurement timelines and bidding strategies.
What Happens Next
The industry is now focused on the rollout of the first List III. Success hinges on whether manufacturers can secure the necessary land—estimated at 100–125 acres per 5 GW facility—and reliable power infrastructure. As the India renewable energy sector continues to scale toward ambitious 2030 targets, this policy serves as a litmus test for the country’s ability to transition from an assembly-based market to a self-reliant manufacturing powerhouse.
